Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
