Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
